The World Bank has forecast that Bangladesh’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth could be 4.6 percent in the current fiscal year 2025-26. However, the organization believes that this growth could increase further to 6.1 percent in the upcoming fiscal year 2026-27.

This information about Bangladesh’s economy was provided in the January edition of the ‘Global Economic Prospectus’ published by the World Bank’s Dhaka office on Wednesday (January 14).

The World Bank says that the economy will recover as consumer spending increases and inflationary pressures ease. The report notes that political uncertainty will decrease if national elections are held in early 2026. As a result, a new government will be able to implement the necessary structural reforms, which will strengthen the country’s industrial sector. Based on these expectations, the organization has raised its growth forecast.

The report also mentions some risks along with the positive forecast. Among the risks are that inflation in Bangladesh is currently higher than the target. Tightening monetary policy to control it has reduced credit flow, which is hindering the expansion of trade and commerce. In addition, the imposition of counter-tariffs by the United States may create new risks for Bangladesh in terms of international trade, and however, the World Bank believes that it is possible to overcome these challenges if government spending and investment increase.

According to the World Bank report, Bhutan will have the highest growth in South Asia in the current fiscal year (7.3%). Other countries include India (6.5 percent), Bangladesh (4.6 percent), Maldives (3.9 percent), Sri Lanka (3.5 percent) and Nepal (2.1 percent). However, the World Bank did not provide growth forecasts for Pakistan and Afghanistan in the report.

Meanwhile, the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) has released a provisional estimate of GDP growth for the first quarter (July-September) of the 2025-26 fiscal year. According to BBS data, the growth rate in these three months was 4.5 percent. It is worth noting that the growth rate was only 2.58 percent in the same period of the last fiscal year 2024-25.

The World Bank said that global growth is likely to slow slightly to 2.6 percent in 2026 and 2.7 percent in 2027. However, global inflation is likely to fall to 2.6 percent by 2026. About 1.2 billion young people will enter the working age group in the world in the next decade. The organization has emphasized increasing productivity, strengthening digital and human capital, and increasing private investment to ensure employment for this large population.