The National Board of Revenue (NBR) has seen a major shortfall in revenue collection in the first six months (July-December) of the current 2025-26 fiscal year. During this period, revenue collection was about Tk 46,000 crore less than the set target.

According to the latest statistics of the NBR, the total revenue collected in the six months was 1,85,229 crore taka. However, the target for the same period was 2,31,205 crore 37 lakh taka. As a result, the deficit stands at 45,976 crore 37 lakh taka.

The deficit was around 24,000 crore taka until November, which almost doubled by the end of December.

According to statistics, the biggest shortfall in revenue collection has been in the income tax sector. In the six months, 61,875.20 crore taka was collected from income tax, while the target was 85,405.52 crore taka. As a result, the deficit in the income tax sector stands at 23,530.25 crore taka.

The target was not met in the customs sector either. In this sector, against the target of 65,000 crore 85 lakh taka, 52,860 crore 56 lakh taka was collected. This resulted in a deficit of 12,140 crore 29 lakh taka.

On the other hand, the VAT sector collected 70,493.24 crore taka, while the target was 80,799 crore taka. As a result, the deficit in the VAT sector stood at 10,305.76 crore taka.

Although income tax, customs and VAT sectors achieved growth of 14.67 percent, 6.81 percent and 19.97 percent respectively during the same period, it was not possible to reduce the overall revenue deficit due to the high target.

The NBR could not achieve its revenue collection target in December as a single month. In that month, against the target of Tk 51,366.12 crore, Tk 36,195 crore was collected. The growth in revenue collection in December was 10.25 percent.

In December, 9,950 crore taka was collected from customs duties, 12,261 crore taka from VAT, and 13,984 crore taka from income tax.

At the beginning of the current fiscal year, the NBR's revenue target was set at Tk 499,000 crore. Later, at the Budget Monitoring and Resources Committee meeting on November 10, it was increased to Tk 554,000 crore.

According to analysts, multiple structural and macro factors are at work behind the revenue deficit. Political instability, stagnation of investment activities, high inflation, contraction of consumer spending, and the impact of reduced imports have slowed down the pace of revenue collection. Added to this are internal conflicts within the revenue administration and long-standing reform deadlock. For these reasons, the deficit is not just temporary; rather, it has brought to the fore a deep crisis in the country's revenue capacity.

Regarding the NBR's revenue collection failure, the Center for Policy Dialogue (CPD) said in an observation that the target setting did not reflect the real situation. The reality of inflation and falling imports was ignored. In addition, tax exemptions, delayed reforms, and weaknesses in preventing tax evasion were identified as the main reasons for the revenue shortfall. The organization also commented that ignoring the recommendations of the advisory committee has created confusion in the reform process.

Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (MCCI) President Kamran T Rahman told Dhaka Mail, "The country's business is not doing well. The commercial sector is in crisis due to political instability and the election situation. In addition, the suspension of investment is responsible for the Rajeshwar Ghat case."

This business leader believes that the large gap in revenue collection is a worrying signal for the country's economy.